Error of Expectation: A Review
Abstract
Error of expectation is a type of cognitive bias, which refers to the tendency of individuals to trust their mental models and expectations over actual facts or evidence. This review examines the concept of error of expectation, its causes, and some of its consequences. We also discuss the implications of this cognitive bias for decision-making, and offer some suggestions for managing it.
Introduction
Error of expectation is a cognitive bias, which is defined as the tendency of individuals to rely on their mental models and expectations over actual facts or evidence (Carroll, 2018). This type of bias arises from a combination of overconfidence in one’s own judgment and an overestimation of the accuracy of one’s own mental models and expectations (Fischhoff, 1982). This cognitive bias can lead to a variety of errors in decisions, such as overestimating the likelihood of success or underestimating the likelihood of failure (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).
Causes
Error of expectation can be caused by a variety of factors, including overconfidence in one’s own judgment, anchoring bias, confirmation bias, and the availability heuristic (Fischhoff, 1982; Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Overconfidence in one’s own judgment can lead individuals to overestimate the accuracy of their mental models and expectations, which can lead to errors of expectation (Fischhoff, 1982). Anchoring bias can lead individuals to rely too heavily on the first bit of information they receive, which can lead them to make decisions based on incomplete or inaccurate information (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out information which confirms one’s own beliefs, which can lead to errors of expectation by reinforcing an individual’s mental models and expectations (Fischhoff, 1982). The availability heuristic is the tendency to overestimate the probability of events which are easily recalled, which can lead individuals to overestimate the likelihood of certain outcomes (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979).
Consequences
Error of expectation can lead to a variety of errors in decision-making, such as overestimating the likelihood of success or underestimating the likelihood of failure (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Error of expectation can also lead to an unwillingness to adapt to changing conditions, which can lead to poor decisions in uncertain or rapidly changing environments (Fischhoff, 1982). Additionally, error of expectation can lead to an individual’s failure to consider alternative explanations or to recognize potential mistakes or errors, which can lead to poor decision-making (Carroll, 2018).
Implications and Management
Error of expectation has implications for individuals and organizations in terms of decision-making. For individuals, it is important to be aware of one’s own cognitive biases and to consider alternative explanations or possibilities before making decisions. For organizations, it is important to create a culture which encourages employees to question their own mental models and expectations and to consider alternative explanations or possibilities before making decisions. Additionally, organizations should create systems and processes which allow employees to question their own assumptions, and to consider alternative explanations or possibilities before making decisions.
Conclusion
Error of expectation is a cognitive bias, which is the tendency of individuals to trust their mental models and expectations over actual facts or evidence. This review examined the concept of error of expectation, its causes, and some of its consequences. We also discussed the implications of this cognitive bias for decision-making, and offered some suggestions for managing it.
References
Carroll, J. (2018). Cognitive biases: A review. Frontiers in Psychology, 9, 1-15.
Fischhoff, B. (1982). Debiasing. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, & A. Tversky (Eds.), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (pp. 422-444). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.