Regression toward the Mean: A Statistical Phenomenon with Relevance to Everyday Life
Abstract
This article provides an overview of regression toward the mean (RTM), a statistical phenomenon that has been studied and discussed since the late 19th century. The article presents an overview of the concept, its history, and its implications in everyday life. The article further discusses the importance of recognizing and understanding RTM and how it can be used to make more accurate predictions.
Introduction
Regression toward the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that has been studied and discussed since the late 19th century. The concept of RTM is based on the idea that extreme values, or values far from the mean, are likely to be followed by more moderate values when measured a second time. This phenomenon has important implications for everyday life, as it can be used to make more accurate predictions and explain unexpected outcomes.
History
The concept of RTM was first proposed by Sir Francis Galton in his 1886 paper, “Regression toward mediocrity in hereditary stature.” In this paper, Galton investigated the heights of parents and their children and found that the children’s heights were closer to the average than the parents’ heights. Galton attributed this to the fact that extreme values were more likely to be followed by more moderate values.
Implications
RTM is a phenomenon that can be observed in many aspects of everyday life. For example, when predicting future outcomes, such as the stock market or election results, it is important to recognize that extreme values are likely to be followed by more moderate values. This phenomenon can also be observed in sports, where teams that perform exceptionally well one season are likely to perform less well the next season. Additionally, RTM can be seen in psychological studies, where people who report extreme levels of satisfaction or dissatisfaction are likely to report more moderate levels the next time they are surveyed.
Conclusion
In conclusion, regression toward the mean is an important statistical phenomenon that has important implications for everyday life. This phenomenon can be used to make more accurate predictions and to explain unexpected outcomes. Consequently, it is essential to recognize and understand RTM in order to make better decisions and draw more accurate conclusions.
References
Galton, F. (1886). Regression toward mediocrity in hereditary stature. Journal of the Anthropological Institute of Great Britain and Ireland, 15(2), 246-263.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1973). On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review, 80(4), 237-251.
Wood, F. (2020). Regression toward the mean: Explaining unexpected outcomes. Retrieved from https://www.statisticshowto.datasciencecentral.com/regression-toward-the-mean/