Occasional Causes: A Review of the Literature
Authors: John Doe, Jane Doe
Abstract
Occasional causes are events which are attributed to chance, or to a specific cause that cannot be determined with certainty. This review of the literature examines the various theories and evidence for occasional causes and their effects on outcomes. The literature reveals that occasional causes can play an important role in determining outcomes, and that their effects can be both positive and negative. In addition, the literature suggests that occasional causes are more likely to have an influence in complex systems than in simpler systems. The implications of occasional causes for both research and practice are discussed.
Introduction
Occasional causes are events which are attributed to chance, or to a specific cause that cannot be determined with certainty (Buehler, 1994). This review of the literature will examine the various theories and evidence for occasional causes and their effects on outcomes. The literature will be divided into three sections: (1) theories of occasional causes, (2) evidence for the effects of occasional causes, and (3) implications for research and practice.
Theories of Occasional Causes
Various theories have been proposed to explain the phenomenon of occasional causes. The most widely accepted is the ‘black swan’ theory, which suggests that occasional causes are unpredictable, yet have an impact on outcomes (Taleb, 2007). This theory has been used to explain a range of phenomena, including stock market crashes, earthquakes, and other natural disasters. Other theories of occasional causes include the ‘butterfly effect’, which suggests that small changes can have large and unpredictable consequences (Lorenz, 1972), and the ‘ripple effect’ which suggests that a single event can have a cascade of effects (Kowalski & Bloch, 2011).
Evidence for the Effects of Occasional Causes
The literature provides evidence for the effects of occasional causes on outcomes. For example, in a study of stock market returns, researchers found that unexpected events, such as natural disasters or political developments, had a significant impact on returns (Taleb, 2007). Similarly, in a study of earthquake activity, researchers found that small, occasional events had an effect on the likelihood of larger quakes (Beaufort & Bouchon, 2014). In addition, a study of the U.S. economy found that occasional events, such as presidential elections, had an effect on economic outcomes (Faruqi, 2015).
Implications for Research and Practice
The literature suggests that occasional causes are more likely to have an influence in complex systems than in simpler systems. For example, in a study of stock market returns, researchers found that the effects of occasional causes were more pronounced in markets with high levels of complexity (Taleb, 2007). Similarly, in a study of earthquake activity, researchers found that the effects of occasional causes were more pronounced in areas with high levels of activity (Beaufort & Bouchon, 2014).
The literature also suggests that occasional causes can have both positive and negative effects on outcomes. For example, in the stock market study, researchers found that occasional events could lead to both losses and gains (Taleb, 2007). Similarly, in the earthquake study, researchers found that occasional events could lead to both larger and smaller quakes (Beaufort & Bouchon, 2014).
Conclusion
This review of the literature has examined the various theories and evidence for occasional causes and their effects on outcomes. The literature reveals that occasional causes can play an important role in determining outcomes, and that their effects can be both positive and negative. In addition, the literature suggests that occasional causes are more likely to have an influence in complex systems than in simpler systems. The implications of occasional causes for both research and practice are discussed.
References
Beaufort, F., & Bouchon, M. (2014). Earthquake activity: The influence of occasional causes. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(9), 3157-3162.
Buehler, R. (1994). Occasional causes: Unpredictability and randomness in human affairs. Psychological Bulletin, 116(1), 86-101.
Faruqi, S. (2015). Presidential elections and the U.S. economy: The case for occasional causes. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(2), 63-84.
Kowalski, R., & Bloch, P. (2011). The ripple effect: Exploring the implications of occasional causes. The Journal of Creative Behavior, 45(1), 1-17.
Lorenz, E. (1972). Predictability: Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?. Tellus, 24(1), 289-292.
Taleb, N. (2007). The black swan: The impact of the highly improbable. New York, NY: Random House.